November 3, 2009

Bank Failure Timeline Graphic

Check out this well-done spatial timeline of recent bank failures; it give a geographic specificity that’s lacking in pure statistics.  140 and counting since 2008…

November 3, 2009

A rare glimmer of good news from organized labor

According to a recent press release, the United Steelworkers Union is partnering with the Mondragon corporation of Spain to investigate the possibility of starting Mondragon-style manufacturing cooperatives in the United States.

For those who are unfamiliar with Mondragon, it is a network of employee-owned cooperative companies that was started in a poor region of Spain in 1956.   The profits were reinvested into starting more cooperative enterprises, and the network gradually expanded over the course of the last fifty years to the point where it reported 16 billion Euros in sales in 2008.  As a result of its corporate structure, it is owned by its employees who elect the directors on a one-member one-vote basis, and profits not reinvested in the enterprise go to the employee owners.  Otherwise, it functions as any private company, competing in the marketplace for business against all comers.

As such, news of a USW-Mondragon partnership should be particularly heartening for those of a libertarian bent.  For most of the 20th century, the main-line labor movement has been a driving force behind increasing government intervention in the economy, whether through pushing for protectionist trade measures or bailouts for the faltering American auto industry.  However, despite the enormous amount of power these unions wield in many industries, they lack the sense of responsibility and husbandry that comes with the ownership of an enterprise.  As long as people other than the employees own a company, the workers are incentivized to wring as much as they can from it on a short-term basis.  Things are fine and dandy for them until the company suddenly goes belly up or moves over-seas, at which point the goose that lays the golden eggs is cooked.

In order to prevent that end-game, it is in the best interest of both the owners and the union to go hat in hand to the State looking for a bailout and/or a pseudo-monopoly.  However, with an employee-owned company the employees directly benefit (income-wise) if the company is profitable and are hurt if it loses money (no dividends that year), so they are incentivized to think of the enterprise’s long-term prospects.  The whole “wages vs. profits” struggle of a privately held company is a moot point in an employee-owned cooperative since the profits go to the employees anyway.  Furthermore, the company cannot be off-shored since only employees can hold equity in the company; as such, moving a steel plant to Mexico would simply not make sense.

The success of such an enterprise could transform the nature of the main-line unions from organizations that function in a certain state of denial about the functions of the market into organizations promoting the development of a less speculative, more productive economic system.  One in which the creative power of the free market is combined with the many benefits of universal ownership to bring prosperity to every corner of the globe.  To see unions in such a dynamic, creative role would be a breath of fresh air after fifty years of vision-less accommodation to the corporate-welfare state status quo.

October 29, 2009

Epic Awesomeness!

These guys are my new heroes; it takes real moxie to not get flustered while managing a counter-spectacle like this:

October 27, 2009

Citigroup starting to show cracks in their post-bailout whitewash…

According to an excellent post by Mish, Citigroup has just raised the rates on 2 MILLION of their credit cards to 30%, regardless ofthe holder’s credit rating.  Not only does this indicate that Citigroup needs to raise revenue quickly due to bad news concerning their $1.1 trillion worth of “shadow assets“, but it also means that:

Citibank’s average yield year-to-date (consumer and plastic) was about 12%.  But they’re suffering 10% defaults, making their true margin about 2%.  That’s still a positive number…. if it’s accurate.

This spread, of course, has a lot to do with previously-issued fixed-rate 12.99% cards (they and everyone else had a lot) that were handed out like candy to everyone and their brother, frequently with $10,000, $20,000 or even $50,000 credit lines.

Huge numbers of small business owners – especially sole proprietors – use these cards as a means of financing operations.  They relied on that 10 or 12% interest rate, and most of them have huge balances outstanding.

I have since confirmed that this letter is not just going to people who have had credit “challenges”.  Indeed, this appears to be a blanket change on the part of Citibank.  I now have multiple copies from people who assert that they have 750+ FICOs and have never missed a payment on this or any other obligation – the “paragon” of so-called “responsible” credit use.  All of the letters are identical.

The problem should be obvious – for someone with one of the 12.99% cards that is now 30%, this is a radical change that more than doubles monthly interest expense.  Of those who have sent me copies of this letter and disclosed their previous rate, none were over 20%, meaning that these changes represent 50% or greater interest rate increases.  If you’re anywhere near the edge of being unable to pay, this will shove you off the bridge and into the deep, shark-infested water of bankruptcy.

In other words, Citigroup is sucker-punching the economy in a desperate bid to stay solvent.  If the consumer response to this move continues to build, we might be looking at the double-whammy of  a slew of small business and personal bankruptcies (which will trash fourth quarter unemployment and GDP figures), followed by another government bailout of Citi which would further weaken global confidence in the dollar by forcing the Feds to sell even more bonds into an already flooded market.  This will be an interesting story to follow in the next week as Citi’s PR machine inevitably starts trying to spin it to make it look like they’re not up sh*t creek without a paddle.

October 26, 2009

ASR 10/18/2009

In which we discuss the Rock Art Vermonster Scandal, the Saudi’s request for compensation should industrial countries reduce their oil consumption, among other topics…

October 23, 2009

A shot of happy for Ender’s Game fans out there…

XKCD . . . It has always amazed me how Orson Scott Card called blogging 20 years before the form came into being…

October 21, 2009

Vermont Independence: What Binds Us Together

The movement for Vermont’s political independence draws support from across the political spectrum.  There are those on the left for whom Cuba and Venezuela provide their ideal models for an independent Vermont, and there are also those whose ideal post-independence scenario would put New Hampshire’s Free State Project to shame.  Between those two poles fall the vast majority of independence-minded Vermonters, but secession is not, fundamentally, a beast made purely of the left or the right.

Rather, the concept of secession is a screen upon which disenchanted Vermonters can project their political desires.  One may want a variant of state socialism while another desires a return to tight-knit communitarianism, but they share the belief that their hopes for a better future cannot be realized as citizens of the United States.  The reality is that our current political system precludes either individual from meaningful engagement within the political system.  It’s not merely that their visions might be rejected after a fair hearing; rather, in the modern American political system, they simply don’t exist.

Now, if that were the case for only Vermonters with the most extreme political views, the prospects for secession would be dim.  However, the vast majority of Americans actually have no political agency.  They’re led to believe they do through symbolic initiatives and issues that capture the public’s imagination by being given the focus of the mass media, but the serious decisions (how much should the currency be worth, should a war be pursued) are decided first in private.  If the nominal consent of the public is necessary, it is generated through a sustained public relations campaign (e.g. Colin Powell giving a slide-show before the invasion of Iraq), but for the most part people remain “blissfully” unaware that decisions that will profoundly effect their lives have been made at all.

As long as they believe their interests are being fairly represented through the American political system, most Vermonters won’t give secession a second thought.  However, we’re currently going through a crisis of enormous magnitude, and fissures in the comfortably authoritarian American national narrative are beginning to show.  The progressives who believed that the election of Barack Obama would create a just economic system and end American imperialism are beginning to see that, between the escalating war in Central Asia and the continuation of the “bailout the rich” regime, even the most “liberal” President will not create the society they desire.  Similarly, many conservatives who watched in horror as “their” President destroyed the remainders of free-market competition in the banking sector are getting the feeling that their Federal representatives aren’t, in fact, representing them at all.

It is for this concern that Vermont independence provides an answer, regardless of one’s political affiliation.  We’re citizens: we deserve a say.  The simple fact is that one individual cannot realistically represent 650,000 people (as the average Congressional Representative does).  Some smaller issues are decided by State legislatures that are far closer to the people, but the life and death decisions of war and monetary policy are made by people who generally feel more at home in Washington, DC than in the state they supposedly represent.  I grew up in DC, and went to high-school with the children of politicians and bureaucrats; their sense of home and community was among the Washington elites, not the places of origin of their parents.  This insularity of our national political elites does not bode well for the health of a representative republic.

In an independent Vermont, all important decisions would be made by people who actually represent their communities.  The size of Vermont’s legislative districts are small enough that legislators can be personally known by the people in their own communities, and can take their opinions into account when making laws.  It also means that if a fellow community member objects to the conduct of a legislator, he or she can mount an electoral challenge without having to prostitute himself for the hundreds of thousands (or millions) of dollars that are necessary to wage a state-wide political campaign.  In this way, all citizens, no matter their beliefs, can have a true say in the most vital national decisions.  Imagine if the Vermont legislature had to approve whether or not to send troops to Iraq in 2003; I’m sure the real consequences of that decision would have been more thoroughly debated.

This is the ultimate vision that can bind together the diverse supporters of Vermont independence.  It’s easy to fall into squabbling over what a post-independence Vermont would look like (ecotopia, libertarian republic, traditional agrarian community, socialist paradise), but we must remember that none of us can have any real influence in the current system.  Only by asserting our sovereignty and creating a human-scale republic can we begin the serious discussions and debates about the sort of world we want to live in, and by doing so finally don the mantle of Citizen.  Until then, ideological squabble amongst independence advocates amount to spitting in the wind as our futures are mapped out by nihilistic elites (from across the political spectrum) who don’t give a damn about us.  Free Vermont!

October 19, 2009

Vermont Reaps a Benefit by Sowing Denial

By Shawn McCullough

When is it acceptable to deny the reality of one’s own historical roots? Apparently, the State of Vermont has the answer: when a benefit can be realized at the expense of its indigenous citizens. In 2006, the Vermont legislature passed Act 125 (S.117); An Act Relating to State Recognition of the Abenaki People. Ostensibly, said Act imbued the Abenaki with official, State of Vermont, indigenous recognition.

Why is recognition important? First, it acknowledges the historical fact of an extant indigenous community of people, who have maintained a viable existence in Vermont since time immemorial. Second, it allows the Abenaki to market their wares to the public as being authentically crafted by indigenous artisans; being of substantial import to the ability of the Abenaki to sustain themselves economically. Indigenous recognition of the Nulhegan and Missisquoi Abenaki is an entirely reasonable concept; unless, apparently, one is a member of that great throng of “thinkers” who ply their trade under the Golden Dome in Montpelier. It is important to note that the Abenaki are not seeking a land-grab or monetary settlement from the State, merely an indigenous recognition to enhance the marketing of their crafts.

Here’s the rub: the aforementioned 2006 Act was defective, as it did not meet the standard of process required for full official State recognition, as set forth under federal guidelines [See 18 U.S.C. § 1159(c)(3)(B) and 25 U.S.C. § 305e(d)(3)(B)]. As such, the Abenaki remain without the level of recognition that the Act was intended to impart upon them. A bill to amend this legislative Oops! is pending in the House (H.124). However, the proposed amendment is currently languishing in Montpelier’s labyrinth; a quintessential example of the inefficiency of State government via bureaucracy. As usual, what should be a simple legislative “fix” gets mired into a legislative “mix.”

Meanwhile, Vermont—through its Department of Tourism—continues to perpetrate blatant political hypocrisy by promoting and capitalizing upon the mystique of the Abenaki culture—in order to draw tourism to the State—yet, its Legislature fails to take the necessary step to fully acknowledge the Nulhegan and Missisquoi Abenaki as an extant and viable community. The Abenaki culture is not a museum piece to be exploited merely for the sake of advancing Vermont’s ability to capture tourist (i.e., tax) dollars. If the Abenaki presence adds to Vermont’s coffers, then so be it; however, the State should be required to give proper recognition to that from which it is reaping a benefit. Moreover, the State’s potential to reap said benefit increases in ratio to the value of the Abenaki’s wares. Thus, the State only adds idiocy to insult by not enacting a law which adds value to a taxable commodity.

For those who may be thinking, “So what? This issue only affects a handful of indigenous Vermonters in Orleans and Franklin Counties!” Not so fast. This is not merely an Abenaki issue, existing in a vacuum. Rather, on principle, it’s one that should resonate for all Vermonters. The Nulhegan and Missisquoi Abenaki community’s redress of grievance for recognition from Montpelier is applicable to the broader idea of self-rule for all people. If the State is allowed a “pass” on denying recognition of an entire community of people, how much easier does it then become for the State to deny recognition of us as individuals? How much of a leap is it from “no recognition of a community; thus, no right to market authenticate crafts” to “no recognition of an individual; thus, no right to gainful employment”? Such a leap cannot be made wide enough to preserve liberty for all—liberty is only as unalienable as it is for each individual citizen, comprising each community of individuals. For the sake of liberty for all, let this be a clarion call-issue for all Vermonters to contact their elected representatives in Montpelier, urging support of H.124!

October 18, 2009

Vermonster Beer

I’m sure most of you reading this blog have heard by now of the conflict between the Monster Energy Drink Corporation and Rock Art Brewery in Morrisville.  Last month, Monster sent a letter to Rock Art demanding that they discontinue use of the name ‘Vermonster’ for one of their beers, because it could be confused with ‘Monster.’  You might now be saying to yourself, “Wait, Monster is an energy drink, not a beer?” Yes, but Monster wants to get in the beer business and doesn’t want confusion when they do.  For Rock Art to fight this battle in the courts would lead them to bankruptcy, so local-brew fans in Vermont have rallied in their support by sending letters to Monster, forming a Facebook group, signing an online petition and most importantly, despite a financial loss, many Vermont beverage distributors have pulled all Monster products from their shelves.  Below is a video of Rock Art owner Matt Nadeau explaining the situation.

October 13, 2009

Further Currency Developments…

Gold hit $1067.00 today, and the dollar has continued to weaken against other currencies, including the Yen and Euro.  In addition to the factors previously mentioned below, I just came across another article that adds a piece to the reserve currency puzzle.  According to an article from the Telegraph, last month the Chinese offered their first issuance of government debt that foreigners are allowed to acquire.

This is a rather important development, because any currency that aspires to fill the role of the World Reserve needs to be “backed” by internationally negotiable government debt.  If a country wants to sell its oil, right now (unless it is Iran, which is taking Euros) it accepts Dollars.  It then uses those Dollars to buy other goods and service that it requires on the world market.  However, what happens if that country has a trade surplus; that is, sells more goods than it buys?  It can put that surplus into commodities and private companies (as middle eastern “sovereign wealth funds” have done), but such strategies are risky and not very liquid should the country need a big wad of buying power in a pinch.  As they are backed by the power of the State to tax its citizens, Dollar denominated government bonds are the easiest place to park a surplus, and are as close to cash as a government can get in terms of liquidity.

Thus, this move by the Chinese government allows a country the option of selling its surplus for Yuan rather than Dollars, as it allows for a liquid, low risk place to park those Yuan.  This will begin to allow China to print more money than its own economy requires (just like the USA does now), meaning high value money enters the world economy in China and then loses value as it filters to the rest of the world.  American prosperity since the 1970s has been built on the rents collected from this system of inflation-exportation, and the Chinese are edging in on our hustle.  I wonder: at what point will the Federal Government be forced to openly acknowledge the economic warfare that they’re waging behind the backs of the American people?  An honest discussion of this inevitably leads to the problems inherent to a monopolized money supply*; this is why Dr. Paul’s Free Competition in Currency Act needs to be passed (but was assiduously ignored).

On the other hand, the Second Vermont Republic has just issued one ounce silver coins; I’m thinking a bit of silver might not be a bad call as a hedge given what the price of the yellow stuff is doing…

[UPDATE] – Looks like the American mainstream media (outside the financial press) is finally picking up on this story![/UPDATE]

* What follows is an excerpt from Kevin Carson’s “The Iron Fist Behind the Invisible Hand” discussing the money monopoly:

THE MONEY MONOPOLY. In every system of class exploitation, a ruling class controls access to the means of production in order to extract tribute from labor. Under capitalism, access to capital is restricted by the money monopoly, by which the state or banking system is given a monopoly on the medium of exchange, and alternative media of exchange are prohibited. The money monopoly also includes entry barriers against cooperative banks and prohibitions against private issuance of banknotes, by which access to finance capital is restricted and interest rates are kept artificially high.

Just in passing, we might mention the monumental hypocrisy of the regulation of credit unions in the United States, which require that their membership must share some common bond, like working for the same employer. Imagine the outrage if IGA and Safeway lobbied for a national law to prohibit grocery co-ops unless the members all worked for the same company! One of the most notable supporters of these laws is Phil Gramm, that renowned “free marketeer” and economics professor–and foremost among the banking industry’s whores in Congress.

Individualist and mutualist anarchists like William Greene [Mutual Banking], Benjamin Tucker [Instead of a Book], and J. B. Robertson [The Economics of Liberty] viewed the money monopoly as central to the capitalist system of privilege. In a genuinely free banking market, any group of individuals could form a mutual bank and issue monetized credit in the form of bank notes against any form of collateral they chose, with acceptance of these notes as tender being a condition of membership. Greene speculated that a mutual bank might choose to honor not only marketable property as collateral, but the “pledging … [of] future production.” [p. 73]. The result would be a reduction in interest rates, through competition, to the cost of administrative overhead–less than one percent.

Abundant cheap credit would drastically alter the balance of power between capital and labor, and returns on labor would replace returns on capital as the dominant form of economic activity. According to Robinson,

Upon the monopoly rate of interest for money that is… forced upon us by law, is based the whole system of interest upon capital, that permeates all modern business.

With free banking, interest upon bonds of all kinds and dividends upon stock would fall to the minimum bank interest charge. The so-called rent of houses… would fall to the cost of maintenance and replacement.

All that part of the product which is now taken by interest would belong to the producer. Capital, however… defined, would practically cease to exist as an income producing fund, for the simple reason that if money, wherewith to buy capital, could be obtained for one-half of one per cent, capital itself could command no higher price [pp. 80-81].

And the result would be a drastically improved bargaining position for tenants and workers against the owners of land and capital. According to Gary Elkin, Tucker’s free market anarchism carried certain inherent libertarian socialist implications:

It’s important to note that because of Tucker’s proposal to increase the bargaining power of workers through access to mutual credit, his so-called Individualist anarchism is not only compatible with workers’ control but would in fact promote it. For if access to mutual credit were to increase the bargaining power of workers to the extent that Tucker claimed it would, they would then be able to (1) demand and get workplace democracy, and (2) pool their credit buy and own companies collectively.

The banking monopoly was not only the “lynchpin of capitalism,” but also the seed from which the landlord’s monopoly grew. Without a money monopoly, the price of land would be much lower, and promote “the process of reducing rents toward zero.” [Gary Elkin, "Benjamin Tucker--Anarchist or Capitalist"].

Given the worker’s improved bargaining position, “capitalists’ ability to extract surplus value from the labor of employees would be eliminated or at least greatly reduced.” [Gary Elkin, Mutual Banking]. As compensation for labor approached value-added, returns on capital were driven down by market competition, and the value of corporate stock consequently plummeted, the worker would become a de facto co-owner of his workplace, even if the company remained nominally stockholder-owned.

Near-zero interest rates would increase the independence of labor in all sorts of interesting ways. For one thing, anyone with a twenty-year mortgage at 8% now could, in the absence of usury, pay it off in ten years. Most people in their 30s would have their houses paid off. Between this and the nonexistence of high-interest credit card debt, two of the greatest sources of anxiety to keep one’s job at any cost would disappear. In addition, many workers would have large savings (“go to hell money”). Significant numbers would retire in their forties or fifties, cut back to part-time, or start businesses; with jobs competing for workers, the effect on bargaining power would be revolutionary.

Our hypothetical world of free credit in many ways resembles the situation in colonial societies. E. G. Wakefield, in View of the Art of Colonization, wrote of the unacceptably weak position of the employing class when self-employment with one’s own property was readily available. In colonies, there was a tight labor market and poor labor discipline because of the abundance of cheap land. “Not only does the degree of exploitation of the wage-labourer remain indecently low. The wage-labourer loses into the bar- gain, along with the relation of dependence, also the sentiment of dependence on the abstemious capitalist.”

Where land is cheap and all men are free, where every one who so pleases can obtain a piece of land for himself, not only is labour very dear, as respects the labourers’ share of the product, but the difficulty is to obtain combined labour at any price.

This environment also prevented the concentration of wealth, as Wakefield commented: “Few, even of those whose lives are unusually long, can accumulate great masses of wealth.” As a result, colonial elites petitioned the mother country for imported labor and for restrictions on land for settlement. According to Wakefield’s disciple Herman Merivale, there was an “urgent desire for cheaper and more subservient labourers–for a class to whom the capitalist might dictate terms, instead of being dictated to by them.” [Maurice Dobb, Studies in the Development of Capitalism; Marx, Chapter 33: "The New Theory of Colonialism," in Capital Vol. 1].

In addition to all this, central banking systems perform additional service to the interests of capital. First of all, the chief requirement of finance capitalists is to avoid inflation, in order to allow predictable returns on investment. This is ostensibly the primary purpose of the Federal Reserve and other central banks. But at least as important is the role of the central banks in promoting what they consider a “natural” level of unemployment–until the 1990s around six per cent. The reason is that when unemployment goes much below this figure, labor becomes increasingly uppity and presses for better pay and working conditions and more autonomy. Workers are willing to take a lot less crap off the boss when they know they can find a job at least as good the next day. On the other hand, nothing is so effective in “getting your mind right” as the knowledge that people are lined up to take your job.

The Clinton “prosperity” is a seeming exception to this principle. As unemployment threatened to drop below the four per cent mark, some members of the Federal Reserve agitated to raise interest rates and take off the “inflationary” pressure by throwing a few million workers on the street. But as Greenspan [Testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan] testified before the Senate Banking Committee, the situation was unique. Given the degree of job insecurity in the high-tech economy, there was “[a]typical restraint on compensation increases.” In 1996, even with a tight labor market, 46% of workers at large firms were fearful of layoffs–compared to only 25% in 1991, when unemployment was much higher.

The reluctance of workers to leave their jobs to seek other employment as the labor market tightened has provided further evidence of such concern, as has the tendency toward longer labor union contracts. For many decades, contracts rarely exceeded three years. Today, one can point to five- and six-year contracts–contracts that are commonly characterized by an emphasis on job security and that involve only modest wage increases. The low level of work stoppages of recent years also attests to concern about job security.

Thus the willingness of workers in recent years to trade off smaller increases in wages for greater job security seems to be reasonably well documented. For the bosses, the high-tech economy is the next best thing to high unemployment for keeping our minds right. “Fighting inflation” translates operationally to increasing job insecurity and making workers less likely to strike or to look for new jobs.

October 12, 2009

Competition for jobs at the worst level since they started keeping track…

According to an article from the San Francisco Gate, there are currently 6.3 unemployed workers competing for each available job.  That compares to 2.8:1, which was the highest level recorded during the 2003 recession. Green shoots, eh? If this keeps up for much longer, we might start having to reajust what is considered the optimal American lifestyle.  Newsflash: it resembles nothing on TV.

October 8, 2009

David Walker at Norwich University

David M. Walker, former Head of the Governmental Accountability Office, now President and CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation will be at Norwich University next Tuesday the 13th at 7pm. The event is being held, Free of Charge, at Plumley Armory. For reservations, call Jackie Barnett  at 802 485 2633   or email   jbarnett@norwich.edu.

The video is Mr. Walker’s appearance on 60 minutes.